Race-by-race tips and previews for Monday’s Dubbo meeting
By Neil Evans
Track Soft 6 & rail out 3m from 900m to 400m & true the remainder:
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1600m)
We start on a surface slowly drying out. Confident lightly raced & improving 6. Haze can break through third-up in his first full prep on a 1kg weight drop; and with a superior jockey taking over. Worked home solidly when resuming in a handy maiden at Armidale before again doing his best work late over much further in a deeper race at Muswellbrook. Better suited here; with a gear change in play and right at peak fitness. Expect him to settle back off the speed before being taken to the middle of the course past the 450m.
Dangers: Big watch on progressive 5. Bonnie And Bruce who stuck on well in a handy maiden here having just his second start; while ultra honest mare 12. Trust a Kitty hasn’t missed a place in her last five; and blinkers come off. Big gap to the rest.
How to play it: Haze to win
Racing returns to Dubbo on Monday.Credit: Getty
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m)
Very keen on progressive mare 4. Grandini who is primed to break through 3rd-up. Has a stack of scope staying at the distance 15 days between runs; and importantly with blinkers being added. Came off a smart trial win to charge home fresh at Scone only missing by a head in a maiden of some quality and depth. Ridden too close second-up as a short-priced favourite when failing to run down the winner. Stronger rider takes over here; and she’s much better off on this bigger & wider course where she can settle back off the speed and be given plenty of time to balance up for the run home. Has placed in three from five so far; and headed for better races.
Dangers: Locally-trained 1. Beauty Edge can improve further off a solid closing first-up run; while 8. Alchemena, a filly by Impending, can run into the money on debut.
How to play it: Grandini to win
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1000m)
Untapped home tracker 4. Star Of Salisbury resumes off a long break for only his second start. Hit the line hard at bigger odds on debut way back in late winter last year before being sidelined. Naturally given plenty of time to come right; and looked forward enough through the line in a recent 1000m trial. Drawn to get good cover just off the speed; and is in a very good fresh stable. Will eventually get over a much longer trip; but gets a 1.5kg claim here; will be strong through the line & the more the track dries out the better placed he is.
Dangers: 3. Kiltiki resumes without publicly trialling, but has been in work for some time, and blinkers being added is a key gear change. 5. Star Swindler is on debut for a leading local stable, and given a very easy time out the back in a recent trial; while stablemate mare 10. Miss Rovillea is also a big market watch on debut off a quiet trial.
How to play it: Star Of Salisbury to win
Race 4 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1000m)
In an open race, still progressing 1. Starane represents value third-up off a month-long freshen; with some vital weight relief. Chased home gallantly two starts back in a deeper BM 58 at Scone before again working home okay at Orange. Always races best when on the fresher side in any prep; and this is the lightest weight he’s carried in a long time. The drying track is a further plus.
Dangers:Plenty of them headed by 6. Charlie Magic who finished hard from just off the speed to break through at only his third start, and boasts good tactical gears. 3. Midnight Dream can peak fifth-up coming back in grade. 9. The Mooch has placed in her last five at CL1 level, and is capable of charging into the finish behind a solid tempo; while 10. Desirous second-up goes in all exotic plays.
How to play it: Starane each way
Race 5 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1600m)
Locally trained 5. Epic Poem has gone to another level this prep, winning two straight up to CL3, the latest rushing home to beat a more than handy field at Wellington, and the second horse from that race then beat a handy BM 58 field here.
Dangers: Progressive mare 8. Bush Telegraph scored an overdue second win deep into the prep and is hard fit, although this is tougher. Keep safe 3. Blue Guitar who flew home to win a Saturday Highway two starts back over this trip, and comes back from an even tougher metropolitan race over 2000m where he dropped out a long way in soft ground. Back to a more suitable trip, but needs the track to firm up. 1. Titled Tycoon who draws the inside fourth-up; and 9. Magic Pharoah down in grade fifth-up; are the clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Epic Poem to win
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m)
Progressive 2. Brutal Love is trained on the course, and reloads 24 days after a smart first-up win in what is now a weakened race.
Dangers: 7. Arambys is on the rise coming off a fast-finishing fresh maiden win at Narromine where he was backed from $2.50 into $2.10. 5. Zahdi went close first-up in a CL2, and should relish the bigger circuit; while 11. Quick Onyx with weight relief can run into the minor money.
How to pay it: Brutal Love to win
Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1300m)
Tough local mare 9. Mrs Bull is on a quick back-up deep into the prep. Ridden quieter in a thinner BM 58 two starts back when thundering late into a place before returning home over 1400m & taken to the front before only being collared in the final few strides. Keeps racing well; and has only missed a place once from eight starts here. More experienced jockey gets back on; and the drop back to this journey is ideal. Well over the odds in a competitive race.
Dangers:Similarly 6. Ms Reeves has been in the money in her last four in and around this grade, and edged out the top selection here only six days ago. Gap to the rest headed by 10. Shadow Dane who drops in weight with a gear change; 11. I’m Scarlett, who gets another jockey change; and 1. Hit The Rim back a little in distance and on a quick back-up.
How to play it: Mrs Bull to win
BEST BETS:
R2: (4) GRANDINI
R3: (4) STAR OF SALISBURY
BEST VALUE:
R7: (9) MRS BULL
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au