The fall of Assad after 14 years of war in Syria ends decades-long dynasty

Beirut: The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government on Sunday brought to a dramatic close his nearly 14-year struggle to hold on to power as his country fragmented amid a brutal civil war that became a proxy battlefield for regional and international powers.

Assad’s downfall came as a stark contrast to his first months as Syria’s unlikely president in 2000, when many hoped he would be a young reformer after three decades of his father’s iron grip. Only 34 years old, the Western-educated ophthalmologist was a rather geeky, tech-savvy fan of computers with a gentle demeanour.

But when faced with protests against his rule that erupted in March 2011, Assad turned to the brutal tactics of his father in an attempt to crush them. As the uprising haemorrhaged into an outright civil war, he unleashed his military to blast opposition-held cities, with support from allies Iran and Russia.

International rights groups and prosecutors alleged widespread use of torture and extrajudicial executions in Syria’s government-run detention centres.

The Syrian war has killed nearly half a million people and displaced half the country’s prewar population of 23 million. As the uprising spiralled into a civil war, millions of Syrians fled across the borders into Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon, and on to Europe.

His departure brings an end to the Assad family rule, spanning just under 54 years. With no clear successor, it throws the country into further uncertainty.

Until recently, it seemed Assad was almost out of the woods. The long-running conflict had settled along frozen conflict lines in recent years, with Assad’s government regaining control of most of Syria’s territory while the north-west remained under the control of opposition groups and the north-east under Kurdish control.

While Damascus remained under crippling Western sanctions, neighbouring countries had begun to resign themselves to Assad’s continued hold on power. The Arab League reinstated Syria’s membership last year, and Saudi Arabia in May announced the appointment of its first ambassador to Syria since severing ties with Damascus 12 years earlier.

However, the geopolitical tide turned quickly with a surprise offensive launched by opposition groups based in north-west Syria in late November. Government forces quickly collapsed, while Assad’s allies, preoccupied by other conflicts – including Russia’s war in Ukraine and the year-long wars between Israel and the Iran-backed militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas – appeared reluctant to forcefully intervene.

Assad’s whereabouts were not clear on Sunday, amid reports he had left the country as insurgents took control of the Syrian capital.

He came to power in 2000 by a twist of fate. His father had been cultivating Bashar’s oldest brother, Basil, as his successor, but in 1994 Basil was killed in a car crash in Damascus. Bashar was brought home from his ophthalmology practice in London, put through military training and elevated to the rank of colonel to establish his credentials so he could one day rule.

When Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, parliament quickly lowered the presidential age requirement from 40 to 34. Bashar’s elevation was sealed by a nationwide referendum, in which he was the only candidate.

Hafez, a lifelong military man, ruled the country for nearly 30 years, during which he set up a Soviet-style centralised economy and kept such a stifling hand over dissent that Syrians feared even to joke about politics to their friends.

He pursued a secular ideology that sought to bury sectarian differences under Arab nationalism and the image of heroic resistance to Israel. He formed an alliance with the Shiite clerical leadership in Iran, sealed Syrian domination over Lebanon and set up a network of Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups.

Bashar initially seemed completely unlike his strongman father.

Tall and lanky with a slight lisp, he had a quiet, gentle demeanour. His only official position before becoming president was head of the Syrian Computer Society. His wife, Asma al-Akhras, whom he married several months after taking office, was attractive, stylish and British-born.

The young couple, who eventually had three children, seemed to shun trappings of power. They lived in an apartment in the upscale Abu Rummaneh district of Damascus, as opposed to a palatial mansion like other Arab leaders.

Initially upon coming to office, Assad freed political prisoners and allowed more open discourse. In the “Damascus Spring”, salons for intellectuals emerged where Syrians could discuss art, culture and politics to a degree impossible under his father.

But after 1000 intellectuals signed a public petition calling for multiparty democracy and greater freedoms in 2001, and others tried to form a political party, the salons were snuffed out by the feared secret police, who jailed dozens of activists.

Instead of a political opening, Assad turned to economic reforms. He slowly lifted economic restrictions, let in foreign banks, threw the doors open to imports and empowered the private sector. Damascus and other cities long mired in drabness saw a flourishing of shopping malls, restaurants and consumer goods. Tourism swelled.

Abroad, he stuck to the line his father had set, based on the alliance with Iran and a policy of insisting on a full return of the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, although in practice Assad never militarily confronted Israel.

In 2005, he suffered a heavy blow with the loss of Syria’s decades-old control over neighbouring Lebanon after the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. With many Lebanese accusing Damascus of being behind the slaying, Syria was forced to withdraw its troops from the country, and a pro-American government came into power.

At the same time, the Arab world became split into two camps – one of US-allied, Sunni-led countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the other of Syria and Shiite-led Iran, with ties to Hezbollah and Palestinian militants.

Throughout, Assad relied largely on the same power base at home as his father: his Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam comprising about 10 per cent of the population. Many of the positions in his government went to younger generations of the same families that had worked for his father. Drawn in as well were the new middle class created by his reforms, including prominent Sunni merchant families.

Assad also turned to his family. His younger brother Maher headed the elite Presidential Guard and would lead the crackdown against the uprising. Their sister Bushra was a strong voice in his inner circle, along with her husband, deputy defence minister Assef Shawkat, until he was killed in a 2012 bombing. Bashar’s cousin Rami Makhlouf became the country’s biggest businessman, heading a financial empire before the two had a falling out that led to Makhlouf being pushed aside.

Assad also increasingly entrusted key roles to his wife, Asma, before she announced in May that she was undergoing treatment for leukemia and stepped out of the limelight.

When protests erupted in Tunisia and Egypt, eventually toppling their rulers, Assad dismissed the possibility of the same occurring in his country, insisting that his regime was more in tune with its people. After the Arab Spring wave did move to Syria, his security forces staged a brutal crackdown, while Assad consistently denied he was facing a popular revolt, instead blaming “foreign-backed terrorists” trying to destabilise his regime.

His rhetoric struck a chord with many in Syria’s minority groups – including Christians, Druze and Shiites – as well as some Sunnis who feared the prospect of rule by Sunni extremists even more than they disliked Assad’s authoritarian rule.

Ironically, on February 26, 2011, two days after the fall of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak to protesters and just before the wave of Arab Spring protests swept into Syria – in an email released by Wikileaks as part of a cache in 2012 – Assad emailed a joke he’d run across mocking the Egyptian leader’s stubborn refusal to step down.

AP

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