By Noel Towell
Nearly 900 new kindergartens will have to be built in the next 12 years, at a cost of $17 billion, to keep up with Victoria’s soaring demand for early childhood education places, the state’s infrastructure authority has warned.
Infrastructure Victoria says that another 60 government schools will also be needed in the decade to 2036. It has urged the cash-strapped state government to take a more cost-effective approach to building the next generation of schools by almost doubling their standard size.
In a report to be published on Tuesday, Infrastructure Victoria said the state government’s changes providing free three and four-year-old kinder had turbocharged demand from families.
Statewide, there are about 4700 facilities delivering early education and childcare offering, but that would need to grow by 900, or almost 20 per cent, by 2036 to cope with the increased demand.
Infrastructure Victoria said that meant about 138,000 new early childhood education places would be needed in the same time frame – an almost 60 per cent increase.
The state government is already building 50 new early education and childcare centres, but Infrastructure Victoria said up to $11 billion more in public investment might be needed to meet future demand, particularly in poorer areas of the state that struggled to attract for-profit childcare operators.
That investment would be required in addition to about $6 billion in expected private sector spending.
Kindergarten demand will be most acute in Melbourne’s sprawling growth corridors. Facilities will be needed to accommodate 20,000 new kinder places in the Wyndham and Melton-Bacchus Marsh areas.
In the city’s north, the Whittlesea-Wallan area will need to cope with nearly 12,500 spots, and in the south-east, Casey and Dandenong will need to service about 15,000 new places combined to keep up with demand.
Infrastructure Victoria chief executive Jonathan Spear said that with careful planning, public and private investment in early childhood centres could complement each other.
“The government can make the most of its funding in kindergarten infrastructure by focusing its investment in areas where private and not-for-profit providers are less likely to invest,” Spear said.
“Our research shows that the north, west and south-east growth areas of Melbourne would benefit the most from this investment.”
Spear said the agency recommended the government immediately publish its priorities for kindergarten investment over the next five years.
“Sharing regularly updated information about the demand for and supply of kindergartens will reduce the likelihood of gaps in access, and gives private and not-for-profit providers more confidence to invest,” he said.
A spokesperson for Goodstart Early Learning, which runs 177 not-for-profit child care centres and kinders in Victoria, said enrolment pressures had eased in central Melbourne, but centres in other areas had “very high occupancy rates”.
Flemington Goodstart Early Learning Centre director Mousumi Chowdhury with kinder kids (from left) Estelle, 4, Lucas, 4 and Victoria, 4. Credit: Paul Jeffers
“Centres located in Melbourne CBD and city-adjacent areas were once highly occupied but now have more vacancies driven by changes in work patterns and family needs, affecting demand for early learning in these regions,” the spokesperson said.
While Infrastructure Victoria found the government was on track to deliver on its promise to build 100 schools by 2026, it predicted another 60 schools needed to be built in the subsequent decade, and enrolment pressure would again be heaviest in the Melbourne growth zones.
Wyndham and Melton-Bacchus Marsh will need a combined extra 28,000 school desks between 2026 and 2036, according to the infrastructure agency, while about 14,000 new places will have to be found in Whittlesea and another 11,700 in Casey.
In contrast, some regional areas such as Barwon, Central Highlands and Loddon-Campaspe are tipped to have dwindling school enrolments in the coming decade.
Infrastructure Victoria puts the cost of the new schools at about $7.2 billion, but says the government could save $1.5 billion by almost doubling the size of the schools it builds from about 525 students for primary schools and 1200 for high schools to 900 and 2000 respectively.
Spear also encouraged the government to maximise space in existing schools with the use of modern “relocatable” classrooms.
“Our modelling shows the best way to deliver the schools we will need beyond 2026 is to build larger new schools and expand existing schools where there is land to do so,” he said.
“We’re recommending the government begin this delivery and expansion before 2030.”
A government spokesperson said the state had built dozens of new schools in Wyndham, Whittlesea, Melton, Casey and other high-growth areas and was planning for the future.
“We regularly plan for and respond to changes in enrolment trends, working across government to deliver new schools and kinders, expansions and upgrades when and where they are needed most,” they said.
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